周晓华教授团队就非药物干预措施和新冠病毒对抗等在季节性流感传播中的作用在《中国工程院院刊》(Engineering

　　近期，北京大学北京国际数学中心、北京大学大数据分析与应用技术国家工程实验室的周晓华教授团队就非药物干预措施和新冠病毒对抗等在季节性流感传播中的作用在《中国工程院院刊》(Engineering)发表长文(ResearchArticle)，题目为(Influenza’s Plummeting during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Mask-Wearing, Mobility Change, and SARS-CoV-2 Interference)。

　　季节性流感活动通常在冬季达到高峰，但在新冠大流行期间急剧下降。分析比较单个新冠非药物干预措施和SARS-CoV-2干扰在季节性流感活动中的作用，对未来的季节性流感以及感冒大流行防控意义重大。

　　周晓华教授团队研发基于国家/地区的估计模型，以研究戴口罩、限制人口流动性(包括国际旅行限制和国内人口流动限制)等非药物干预措施以及新冠病毒(SARS-CoV-2) 对流感病毒对抗性在季节性流感流行降低中的作用。研究发现，相比限制国际旅行和国内人口流动，戴口罩对流感防控效果更好，且在有效药物和疫苗的前提下，更符合降低疾病负担目标。戴口罩干预增加一周可使流感活动降低11.3%–35.2%，而为期一周的国际和国内人口流动限制对流感病毒传播影响较小，分别为国际(1.7%–6.5%)和国内社区(1.6% –2.8%)。在 2020-2021 流感季中，戴口罩干预措施减少13.3–19.8流感阳性率。限制人口流动措施减少5.2–14.0流感阳性率，其中79.8–98.2% 归功于国际旅行限制。此外，研究提示存在新冠病毒对流感病毒的病毒对抗性，但其统计显著性依赖于新冠病毒和流感病毒在人群范围内的流行强度。在中国北部和英国，新冠病毒的对抗特性在2019–2020年分别减少7.6(2.4–14.4)和10.2 (7.2–13.6)流感阳性率。

Fig. 1. Estimated influenza activities under the mask-wearing order alone and no intervention as well as the observed activity. (a) Weekly percent positivity in 2019–2020 season for northern China. (b) As (a), but for southern China. (c) As (a), but for England. (d) As (a), but for the United States. (e) As (a), but in 2020–2021. (f) As (e), but for southern China. (g) As (e), but for England. (h) As (e), but for the United States. Shaded area refers to 95%CI.

Fig. 2. Estimated influenza activities under the mobility change alone and no intervention as well as the observed activity. (a) Weekly percent positivity in 2019–2020 season for northern China. (b) As (a), but for southern China. (c) As (a), but for England. (d) As (a), but for the United States. (e) As (a), but in 2020–2021. (f) As (e), but for southern China. (g) As (e), but for England. (h) As (e), but for the United States. Shaded area refers to 95%CI.

Fig. 3. Estimated influenza activities under the scenarios with no SARS-COV-2 transmission and with SARS-COV-2 transmission, both without COVID-19 NPIs. (a) Weekly percent positivity in 2019–2020 season for northern China. (b) As (a), but for southern China. (c) As (a), but for England. (d) As (a), but for the United States. (e) As (a), but in 2020–2021. (f) As (e), but for southern China. (g) As (e), but for England. (h) As (e), but for the United States. Shaded area refers to 95%CI.